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The News Not Noise Letter: Why Gas Prices Are Pumping Up

Russia strikes a children’s hospital and maternity ward. Ukraine’s president calls it a war crime and an act of “genocide.” Plus: What does cutting off Russian oil really mean for the US and for you?

Jessica Yellin

Mar 9
  • Russian airstrikes hit a maternity hospital and children’s clinic in Mariupol, a southern Ukrainian city. Children are reportedly buried beneath the rubble.

    • Ukrainian President Zelenskyy called the attack “the ultimate evidence that genocide of Ukrainians is happening.” The Mayor of Mariupol called the attack “pure evil."

    • The World Health Organization has confirmed 18 attacks on hospitals and ambulances in the two weeks since Putin’s troops invaded.

    • Russia has launched 710 missiles against Ukraine, according to a US defense official.

  • Chinese President Xi Jinping, speaking at a conference with the leaders of France and Germany, called for “maximum restraint” on the part of Russia, and described the situation in Ukraine as “deeply worrying.”

    • Remember: Putin and Xi are allies. A Western intel report suggests China even asked Putin to wait until after the 2022 Beijing Olympics to start his offensive.

  • The Pentagon officially rejected Poland’s proposal to send its fighter jets to Ukraine, with the US acting as an intermediary. This complicates Vice President Kamala Harris’ trip to Poland and Romania which begins Wednesday night.

    • But the US is sending two Patriot missile-defense systems to Poland as fears grow that Putin may turn his attention beyond Ukraine’s borders.

  • As part of its propaganda campaign, Russia lied about the US supporting a bioweapons program in Ukraine, a story the Chinese media has also carried.

    • Officials fear Russia may use this lie as an excuse to use “chemical or biological weapons” in Ukraine. A NATO officer told the Guardian this is straight out of Russia’s playbook in Syria.

  • UNICEF confirmed that at least 37 children have been killed since the start of the war, while more than a million have fled to neighboring countries.

  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken predicted at a press conference that Putin’s missteps in Ukraine will lead to his “strategic defeat,” saying he was “absolutely convinced that Putin will fail.”

You’ve probably noticed gas prices have skyrocketed in recent days. As of writing, the national average is $4.25, the highest point since 2008, and they’re expected to continue rising. President Biden announced on Tuesday a full ban on Russian oil imports. BTW: Russia is the third largest producer of petroleum in the world, behind the US and Saudi Arabia.

So how much do we really rely on Russia compared to the EU, and where else will the US now turn for oil?

First, some specifics on the ban in the US:

  • Per the White House, it's a ban on “Russian crude oil and certain petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and coal.” It also prohibits investment in Russia's energy sector or foreign companies that invest in Russian energy.

  • The Biden Administration is also releasing 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which puts more oil into the marketplace and can help reduce the overall price rise. TL;DR: We’ve got some backups, for now.

But the US receives less than 10 percent of its oil from Russia. So what about the EU?

  • Overview: The West gets roughly 4 million barrels of crude oil from Russia per day, the majority of which goes to the EU, Russia’s largest investor.

  • The numbers: The EU relies on Russia for about 40% of its natural gas and 25-30% of its oil. Many of those gas pipelines also run through Ukraine.

  • Biggest buyers: Per a CNN map, these countries rely the most heavily on Russian gas exports for energy:

    • Hungary (25% of their total)

    • Slovakia (22% of their total)

    • Moldova (17% of their total)

    • Austria (15% of their total)

    • Germany (14% of their total)

  • The plan: On Tuesday the EU announced plans to replace roughly two thirds of Russian gas imports "well before 2030." But that’s a ways away. We’re theoretically supposed to have three new Avatar sequels before that happens.

  • Where to turn: The EU will turn to Qatar and the US for its gas needs, with plans to reduce its dependency on Russian oil by nearly 80% this year. It's also planning to use renewable energy sources like wind, solar, biomethane, and hydrogen. But remember: plans don’t necessarily mean they will come to pass.

Is the US looking elsewhere for oil and gas?

  • Some reports suggest that the US is considering easing sanctions against Venezuela, which could bring in crude oil to fill the void.

    • But this decision wouldn’t be without consequences: Venezuela has its own autocratic leader in Nicolás Maduro.

    • And one prominent economist says Venezuela can’t contribute much, anyway, as “its oil industry is destroyed.”

  • We’re also close to restoring the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which would restrict their nuclear program but allow them to sell oil in the global marketplace again.

How are big oil companies responding to the crisis?

  • Shell, Europe's largest oil company, announced Tuesday it is halting all purchases of Russian crude oil and gas and will shut down its facilities in Russia.

    • The company apologized after it came under fire for buying oil at a record discount after the Russian invasion began.

    • In response to the outcry, the company withdrew from Russia: "As an immediate first step, the company will stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil. It will also shut its service stations, aviation fuels and lubricants operations in Russia," the company said in a statement. The CEO said, "We are sorry."

  • BP recently decided to give up its 20 percent stake in Rosneft, a state-owned oil firm and one of the Russia’s largest.

  • On March 1, ExxonMobil also announced it would end its last project in Russia.

What does this mean for consumers?

  • Inflation is already rising and will get even worse due to Russia’s war, with prices expected to go up over the next year more than 5%.

    • Prices are climbing at the fastest rate in 40 years, according to the New York Times. Higher gas prices equals even more inflation. And with average rent way up, the combination is going to hurt a lot of people’s wallets.

  • Expect higher gas prices and increasing inflation to be a major talking point for Republicans in this year’s midterm elections. And look for the administration to seek ways to offset rising costs for consumers.

  • A shrinking supply of oil and gas could also force people and governments to search for alternative energy sources, including those that are more clean and efficient.

  • TL;DR: Short term financial pain for American consumers in exchange for long-term financial pain for Putin and Russians.

Music soothes the soul: Ukrainian troops played “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” in front of barricades protecting Odessa’s Opera House, and this young girl sang “Let It Go” for a captive audience in a bunker, even getting the attention of Frozen star Idina Menzel on Twitter.

Twitter / @Ankita20200

Lions and tigers and bears: Approximately 50 staff members of the Kyiv Zoo (along with 30 family members) have moved into the facility to give around-the-clock care to the stressed out animals. The European Association of Zoos and Aquariums (EAZA) is coordinating a relief fund for their colleagues in Ukraine. Read more about how to donate here.

Satellites and salaries: We already reported that SpaceX is setting up Starlink satellites to keep Ukraine online. Now CNBC reports that Elon Musk’s car company Tesla will pay Ukrainian employees three months salary if they’re conscripted to fight.

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